Seats

The pendulum · 88 districts · Saturday 28 November 2026

Labor notionally holds 56 seats, the Liberal and National Coalition 29, and the Greens three. That means the Coalition needs 16 net gains to govern on its own. ABC

The post-change poll average puts the Coalition on 54.0–46.0 two-party preferred: Labor and the Coalition head to head, with every other party’s votes distributed as preferences. A 9.0-point uniform swing — the same statewide change to every seat — would carry it there, and a majority needs only 7.6 points, or 52.6–47.4 two-party. Ace Strategies ABC

Labor 54 Independent 2 Liberal 20 Nationals 9 Greens 3 Majority line

Labor-held: 56
Coalition-held: 29
Crossbench: 3
Coalition needs: +16

Coalition total of 29 is Liberal 20 and National 9.

The pendulum all 88 districts, most marginal first within each bloc

These are the 2022 results, on boundaries in force since 1 November 2022. No redistribution has happened since, so the margins are current. Margin means two-candidate preferred: the winner and the runner-up, after preferences. ABC Tally Room Wikipedia

Seat	Held by	2022 primary	2CP margin	2026 note
Labor-held 56 the bloc defending government
Bass	Labor	32.6	0.2	Retiring; O-N target
Northcote	Labor	40.6	0.2 v GRN	Greens target
Pakenham	Labor	33.9	0.4	Retiring; O-N leader running
Hastings	Labor	37.3	1.4	—
Pascoe Vale	Labor	—	2.0 v GRN	—
Preston	Labor	37.6	2.1 v GRN	Greens 2nd in 2022
Ripon	Labor	38.5	3.0	O-N + NAT + LIB all running
Glen Waverley	Labor	40.6	3.3	—
Bayswater	Labor	41.3	4.2	Retiring
Footscray	Labor	—	4.2 v GRN	—
Yan Yean	Labor	41.4	4.3	—
Melton	Labor	37.7	4.6	Retiring; O-N 2nd target
Ashwood	Labor	—	6.2	—
Sunbury	Labor	43.1	6.4	—
Niddrie	Labor	43.9	6.7	Premier's seat
Greenvale	Labor	—	7.1	—
Box Hill	Labor	—	7.2	—
Eureka	Labor	41.0	7.2	O-N target
Ringwood	Independent	—	7.5	Fowles retiring
Monbulk	Labor	—	7.6	O-N running
Bentleigh	Labor	—	8.0	—
Mordialloc	Labor	—	8.2	—
Narre Warren South	Labor	48.0	8.3	Retiring
Point Cook	Labor	—	8.3	—
Bellarine	Labor	—	8.5	—
Frankston	Labor	41.6	8.7	—
Narre Warren North	Labor	—	8.7	—
Sydenham	Labor	43.5	8.8	Retiring; O-N target
Cranbourne	Labor	—	9.0	O-N 56.1% in model
Eltham	Labor	—	9.0	—
Macedon	Labor	—	9.5	Retiring
St Albans	Labor	—	9.6	—
Carrum	Labor	—	9.8	—
South Barwon	Independent	—	9.8	MP sits as Ind. Labor
Clarinda	Labor	—	10.2	—
Mulgrave	Labor	51.0	10.2 v LIB / 10.8 v IND	2022=Andrews
Bendigo East	Labor	48.3	10.8	Retiring; NAT chasing
Werribee	Labor	—	10.9	By-election 0.8%
Albert Park	Labor	36.4	11.2	Greens 20.9% in 2022
Mill Park	Labor	—	11.6	Retiring; O-N target
Wendouree	Labor	—	11.9	—
Tarneit	Labor	46.6	12.3	—
Essendon	Labor	—	12.5	Retiring
Bundoora	Labor	—	12.7	—
Ivanhoe	Labor	—	12.8	—
Williamstown	Labor	—	13.4	—
Oakleigh	Labor	—	13.5	—
Kororoit	Labor	—	14.5	—
Bendigo West	Labor	46.5	14.6	Retiring; NAT + O-N
Geelong	Labor	—	14.7	—
Broadmeadows	Labor	—	15.5	—
Thomastown	Labor	—	15.8	—
Lara	Labor	49.7	15.9	O-N running
Kalkallo	Labor	—	16.5	—
Dandenong	Labor	—	18.3	—
Laverton	Labor	—	18.4	—
Coalition-held 29 Liberal and National seats
Mornington	Liberal	—	0.7 v IND	—
Benambra	Liberal	42.9	0.9 v IND / 13.3 v ALP	Retiring; O-N running
Mildura	Nationals	25.9	1.2 v IND	Cupper (IND) + O-N running
Prahran	Liberal	—	1.3 v GRN	Won at 2025 by-election
Croydon	Liberal	—	1.4	Retiring
Hawthorn	Liberal	42.3	1.7	Climate-200 ind. (Ibuki) running
Polwarth	Liberal	—	1.8	—
Caulfield	Liberal	—	2.1	—
Rowville	Liberal	—	3.7	Retiring; O-N running
Kew	Liberal	—	4.0	Opposition Leader's seat
Warrandyte	Liberal	—	4.3	—
Morwell	Nationals	22.9	4.4	O-N strongest 2022 (6.1%)
Berwick	Liberal	—	4.7	O-N running
Sandringham	Liberal	—	5.0	—
Brighton	Liberal	—	5.1	—
Evelyn	Liberal	46.7	5.4	O-N target
Bulleen	Liberal	—	5.9	—
Nepean	Liberal	—	6.4	O-N 24.5% at May 2026 by-election
Eildon	Liberal	—	7.0	—
South-West Coast	Liberal	—	8.0	—
Malvern	Liberal	—	8.1	Retiring
Euroa	Nationals	—	9.9	—
Narracan	Liberal	—	12.9 v IND	2023 supplementary
Gippsland South	Nationals	53.3	15.6	Nationals leader; O-N running
Ovens Valley	Nationals	—	17.8	—
Lowan	Nationals	—	21.6	—
Murray Plains	Nationals	—	23.4	Retiring; O-N running
Shepparton	Nationals	—	24.3 v ALP (6.8 v IND in 2022)	Retiring
Gippsland East	Nationals	—	24.6	Retiring; O-N running
Crossbench 3 the three Greens seats
Richmond	Greens	—	7.3 v ALP	Labor chasing
Melbourne	Greens	—	10.2 v ALP	Greens leader's seat
Brunswick	Greens	—	13.5–13.7 v ALP	Seat vacant (Read died Sept 2026)

Primary is the winning candidate’s 2022 first-preference share, where the seat profile records it; a dash means the research doesn’t carry it. A dash in the 2026 column means the research has no note for that seat — not that nothing is happening there. Prahran and Narracan carry non-2022 baselines: the Liberals won Prahran at the 2025 by-election, and Narracan was decided at a 2023 supplementary election. Tally Room

The risk ranking 35 seats the research names as most likely to change hands

This ranks seats by a consensus of the risk evidence rather than by margin alone. A seat with a retiring member, or one where a third party is polling into second place, ranks higher than its margin suggests. SieO win % is the incumbent’s chance of winning in The Swing Is On’s simulation, at its 5 September 2026 aggregate: a low number means the model expects the seat to change hands. It only publishes one for some seats. The Swing Is On ABC Roy Morgan Tally Room

At that date the model’s aggregate was Coalition 28.8, Labor 25.5, One Nation 22.5, Greens 12.9 and other 10.9, over 5,000 simulations per seat. The Swing Is On

01

Bass Labor 0.2

SieO 0.9% Coalition (O-N outside)

ABC: "most marginal Labor-vs-Liberal contest… grave danger of losing"
02

Melton Labor 4.6

SieO 1.3% One Nation (Coalition outside)

ABC 22 Aug names it in danger; O-N 83.5% win chance
03

Bayswater Labor 4.2

SieO 6.8% Coalition

Retiring MP; "almost impossible to see how Liberals form govt without it"
04

Pakenham Labor 0.4

SieO 7.4% Coalition (O-N outside)

Retiring; O-N leader Warren Pickering running
05

Sydenham Labor 8.8

SieO 13.5% One Nation (Coalition outside)

Retiring (Hutchins); O-N 55.5% win chance
06

Macedon Labor 9.5

SieO 30.9% (Coalition/O-N)

Labor's 12th-weakest seat = loss of majority
07

Box Hill Labor 7.2

SieO 35.8% Coalition

Labor's 17th-weakest; O-N candidate running
08

Yan Yean Labor 4.3

SieO — Coalition or O-N

ABC 22 Aug names it; O-N running
09

Sunbury Labor 6.4

SieO — Coalition or O-N

ABC 22 Aug names it; O-N running
10

Glen Waverley Labor 3.3

SieO — Coalition

ABC: 73.0% Coalition win chance
11

Ripon Labor 3.0

SieO — O-N / NAT / LIB

Crowded three-way; O-N 2nd-best target
12

Hastings Labor 1.4

SieO — Coalition / O-N

ABC 22 Aug: "not counting on holding"
13

Cranbourne Labor 9.0

SieO — One Nation

O-N 56.1% win chance in model
14

Mill Park Labor 11.6

SieO — One Nation

Retiring; O-N 53.9% win chance
15

Ringwood Labor 7.5

SieO — Coalition

Coalition 56.1% win chance; Fowles retiring
16

Eltham Labor 9.0

SieO — Coalition

Coalition 53.9% win chance
17

Point Cook Labor 8.3

SieO — Coalition / O-N

In poll-swing crosshairs; O-N running
18

Bellarine Labor 8.5

SieO — Coalition

Falls at the 8.7-pt poll swing
19

Narre Warren South Labor 8.3

SieO — Coalition

Retiring (Maas); ABC says "should be a straightforward pickup"
20

Mordialloc Labor 8.2

SieO — Coalition

No separate evidence note recorded for this seat.
21

Bentleigh Labor 8.0

SieO — Coalition

No separate evidence note recorded for this seat.
22

Frankston Labor 8.7

SieO — Coalition / O-N

Bellwether; at the tipping point; O-N running
23

Narre Warren North Labor 8.7

SieO — Coalition

No separate evidence note recorded for this seat.
24

Eureka Labor 7.2

SieO — One Nation

ABC: "serious danger"; O-N running
25

Niddrie Labor 6.7

SieO — Coalition

Premier's seat; 16th-most-marginal Labor seat
26

Preston Labor 2.1 v GRN

SieO — Greens

ABC: Greens "best positioned" to dislodge
27

Northcote Labor 0.2 v GRN

SieO — Greens

O-N candidate running; Greens 59.2% (model)
28

Benambra Liberal 0.9/13.3

SieO — Independent / O-N

Retiring Tilley; Farrer parallels
29

Morwell Nationals 4.4

SieO — One Nation

O-N's best 2022 result (6.1%); power-station closure
30

Mildura Nationals 1.2 v IND

SieO — One Nation / IND

Cupper returning; Farrer precedent
31

Evelyn Liberal 5.4

SieO — One Nation

Demographics suit O-N; Vallence 46% primary
32

Hawthorn Liberal 1.7

SieO — Climate-200 independent

Ibuki (Boroondara deputy mayor) running
33

Gippsland South Nationals 15.6

SieO — One Nation

Nationals leader vs O-N; demographics ideal
34

Rowville Liberal 3.7

SieO — Labor (22.7%)

Retiring (Wells); O-N running
35

Croydon Liberal 1.4

SieO — Labor (10.2%)

Retiring (Hodgett)

The seat models six published reads on how many seats each bloc wins

Model	Labor	Coalition	Greens	One Nation	Ind.	Majority?
2022 election (base)	56	28	4	0	0	ALP +12
Roy Morgan MRP (Mar–Sep 2026, n=7,708)	40	31 (L-NP)	6	11	0	Hung — ALP/Greens 46 v L-NP/ONP 42, "too close to call"
YouGov MRP (Jul 2026, n=4,003, Common Threads)	29	39	3	17	0	Hung — Coalition 6 short
RedBridge/Accent MRP (Jun 2026, Trades Hall)	35	39	—	12	—	Hung — Coalition short
The Swing Is On (5 Sep 2026 simulations)	—	—	—	avg 10.9	—	Labor majority "at certain risk"; O-N 1–27 seats in 90% of runs
Poll-average uniform swing	35	50	3	0	0	Coalition majority ~50 (blind spot: assumes no O-N wins)

Uniform swing on the poll average puts the Coalition clear on about 50 seats. The two published seat models disagree: YouGov’s MRP for Common Threads and RedBridge/Accent’s MRP for Victorian Trades Hall — each estimating every seat from one poll — both left the Coalition on 39 of 88, six short of the 45 it needs. They modelled One Nation at 12 to 17 seats, enough to decide who governs without winning government. Ace Strategies YouGov

The uniform-swing row assumes One Nation wins nothing. The other models don’t. Ace Strategies

A dash means the model didn’t publish that figure. Each source’s percentages and totals are as published, and they only compare once you’ve read how each model works.

The limitsread before you act on a number

A seat model is a snapshot. The MRPs were in the field in June and July, before Ben Carroll replaced Jacinta Allan as premier. They describe the contest when they were run, not where it lands on 28 November. Ace Strategies

The uncertainty is bigger than the quoted sampling error. Ace Strategies puts a ±1.0 band on its poll average from sampling, and ±1.4 across polling houses. House effects are larger, and they’re shown separately. Two pollsters can agree on the average and still disagree about the election. Ace Strategies

Nobody has measured preferences at seat level. The models assume One Nation preferences flow to the Coalition — Ace’s default is 75–25, following the 2025 federal flows in Victoria. Move that to 60–40 and the Coalition’s two-party vote falls from 53.0 to 49.6, from a majority to none, without a single primary vote changing. Ace Strategies

Where third parties are involved, the model is the weakest link. Seats with a retiring member get an average −4.30-point primary swing, and One Nation is modelled at a scale it has never been counted at in Victoria. Read the probabilities as a ranking of uncertainty, not a prediction. The Swing Is On Ace Strategies