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Terrain

Gippsland South

Coalition-held. Held by the Nationals on a two-candidate-preferred margin of 15.6.

ABCTally RoomWikipedia

What is happening herethe 2026 record for this seat

2026 note

Nationals leader; O-N running

Member

O'Brien (Nationals). No retiring member is recorded for this seat.

ABC

Who is coming for it

One Nation

The Swing Is OnABCRoy MorganTally Room

Who is standing

6 candidates announced · 1 photographed · 4 with a party logo instead

  • Amy Barry-Macaulay Labor
  • Bianca Wilke One Nation
  • Danny O'Brien, The Nationals candidate for Gippsland South. Danny O'Brien The Nationals Sitting member
  • Lachie McGennisken Victorian Socialists
  • Phillip Schuhmann Independent
  • Zave Evans The Greens

Announced candidacies as the ABC's candidate tracker records them. Nominations close 9 November 2026, so this list can change; it is not a ballot paper and the order carries no meaning. ABCVEC

Incumbent win chance

No probability is published for this seat — the model gives a winning figure for seven districts this cycle, and Gippsland South is not one of them. Its rank of 33 rests on the evidence beside it instead.

The Swing Is On

Evidence

Nationals leader vs O-N; demographics ideal

ABCAce Strategies

Elsewhere

The full pendulum The players

Where no player is listed, the research places none here — a gap in the record, not a seat with no activity.