South Barwon
Labor-held. Held by an independent on a two-candidate-preferred margin of 9.8.
What is happening herethe 2026 record for this seat
2026 note
MP sits as Ind. Labor
Who is coming for it
The research does not name a projected challenger for this seat.
Who is standing
- Freya Hedley Socialist Alliance
- Izzy Scherrer The Greens
- Josh Geard One Nation
- Libby Pettit Liberal
- Madilyn Gorman Victorian Socialists
- Rebecca Thistleton Labor
- Ron Nelson Independent
Announced candidacies as the ABC's candidate tracker records them. Nominations close 9 November 2026, so this list can change; it is not a ballot paper and the order carries no meaning. ABCVEC
Incumbent win chance
No probability is published for this seat — the model runs an incumbent win figure for the seven districts on its own list, and South Barwon is not among them.
Elsewhere
Where no player is listed, the research places none here — a gap in the record, not a seat with no activity.