Victorian election polls 2026: the third corner
Ace Strategies
- Coalition two-party average 53.9–46.1 (± 1.0 sampling; ± 1.4 across houses); nine 2PP readings from five houses range 51–49 to 57–43. - Uniform swing implied: 8.9 points; the Coalition needs 7.6 points for a majority (target 2PP 52.6–47.4). - One Nation post-change average 22.7% (down from a June peak of 27), ± 0.7.
record src_ace_20261014
Quoted from this source 5 passages
“2 May 2026: One Nation's Darren Hercus took 24.5% primary in a safe Liberal seat with no Labor candidate; Liberal held 63–37 after preferences against an independent.”
“Seats: post-change average implies a majority swing, but both published seat models leave the Coalition on 39 of 88 — six short of 45.”
“Moving the One Nation flow from 75–25 to 60–40 takes the Coalition from 53.0 to 49.6 without a single primary vote changing.”
“Both fielded before the change of premier; both criticised for preference assumptions in opposite directions.”
“both published seat models leave the Coalition on 39 of 88 — six short of 45”
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