Terrain

Seats · Eastern Victoria · Labor-held

Bass

Labor-held. Held by Labor on a two-candidate-preferred margin of 0.2 — decided by less than a point.

ABCTally RoomWikipedia

What is happening herethe 2026 record for this seat

2026 note

Retiring; O-N target

Member

Crugnale (Labor). Jordan Crugnale is not recontesting the seat.

ABC

Who is coming for it

Coalition (O-N outside)

The Swing Is OnABCRoy MorganTally Room

Who is standing

5 candidates announced · 5 with a party logo instead

  • Chris Buckingham Labor
  • Chris Jobe Victorian Socialists
  • Nikole Schellekens One Nation
  • Rochelle Halstead Liberal
  • Sophie Thorn The Greens

Announced candidacies as the ABC's candidate tracker records them. Nominations close 9 November 2026, so this list can change; it is not a ballot paper and the order carries no meaning. ABCVEC

Incumbent win chance

0.9% — the probability The Swing Is On’s simulation model gave the leading party in this seat, as at its 5 September 2026 aggregate. A low figure means the model expects the seat to change hands.

The Swing Is On

Evidence

ABC: "most marginal Labor-vs-Liberal contest… grave danger of losing"

ABCAce Strategies

Elsewhere

The full pendulum The players

Where no player is listed, the research places none here — a gap in the record, not a seat with no activity.