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Terrain

Rowville

Coalition-held. Held by the Liberal Party on a two-candidate-preferred margin of 3.7.

ABCTally RoomWikipedia

What is happening herethe 2026 record for this seat

2026 note

Retiring; O-N running

Member

Wells (Liberal). The 2026 note above records a retiring member.

ABC

Who is coming for it

Labor (22.7%)

The Swing Is OnABCRoy MorganTally Room

Who is standing

6 candidates announced · 5 with a party logo instead

  • Bradley Watt One Nation
  • Dave Massey The Greens
  • Lars Hiemstra Victorian Socialists
  • Max Williams Liberal
  • Muhammad Shahbaz Labor
  • Scott Robson Libertarian

Announced candidacies as the ABC's candidate tracker records them. Nominations close 9 November 2026, so this list can change; it is not a ballot paper and the order carries no meaning. ABCVEC

Incumbent win chance

No probability is published for this seat — the model gives a winning figure for seven districts this cycle, and Rowville is not one of them. Its rank of 34 rests on the evidence beside it instead.

The Swing Is On

Evidence

Retiring (Wells); O-N running

ABCAce Strategies

Elsewhere

The full pendulum The players

Where no player is listed, the research places none here — a gap in the record, not a seat with no activity.