Tarneit
Labor-held. Held by Labor on a two-candidate-preferred margin of 12.3.
What is happening herethe 2026 record for this seat
2026 note
The research records no 2026 note for Tarneit — not a finding that nothing is happening here.
Who is coming for it
The research does not name a projected challenger for this seat.
Who is standing
- Andrew Elsbury The West Party
- Dylan Wight Labor Sitting member
- Leah Van Keulen Victorian Socialists
- Maurita Rahn Animal Justice
- Rifai Raheem The Greens
- Venkat Ram Upparlapalle Liberal
- Walter Villagonzalo One Nation
Announced candidacies as the ABC's candidate tracker records them. Nominations close 9 November 2026, so this list can change; it is not a ballot paper and the order carries no meaning. ABCVEC
Incumbent win chance
No probability is published for this seat — the model runs an incumbent win figure for the seven districts on its own list, and Tarneit is not among them.
Elsewhere
Where no player is listed, the research places none here — a gap in the record, not a seat with no activity.