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Terrain

Eltham

Labor-held. Held by Labor on a two-candidate-preferred margin of 9.0.

ABCTally RoomWikipedia

What is happening herethe 2026 record for this seat

2026 note

The research records no 2026 note for Eltham — not a finding that nothing is happening here.

Member

Ward (Labor). No retiring member is recorded for this seat.

ABC

Who is coming for it

Coalition

The Swing Is OnABCRoy MorganTally Room

Who is standing

6 candidates announced · 5 with a party logo instead

  • Jessie Weatherley One Nation
  • Maeve Riches Victorian Socialists
  • Paul Byrnes Liberal
  • Rachel Busbridge The Greens
  • Steven Marasea Libertarian
  • Vicki Ward Labor Sitting member

Announced candidacies as the ABC's candidate tracker records them. Nominations close 9 November 2026, so this list can change; it is not a ballot paper and the order carries no meaning. ABCVEC

Incumbent win chance

No probability is published for this seat — the model gives a winning figure for seven districts this cycle, and Eltham is not one of them. Its rank of 16 rests on the evidence beside it instead.

The Swing Is On

Evidence

Coalition 53.9% win chance

ABCAce Strategies

Elsewhere

The full pendulum The players

Where no player is listed, the research places none here — a gap in the record, not a seat with no activity.