Carrum

Labor-held. Held by Labor on a two-candidate-preferred margin of 9.8.

ABC Tally Room Wikipedia

What is happening herethe 2026 record for this seat

2026 note

The research records no 2026 note for Carrum — not a finding that nothing is happening here.

Member

Kilkenny (Labor). No retiring member is recorded for this seat.

ABC

Who is coming for it

The research does not name a projected challenger for this seat.

The Swing Is On ABC Roy Morgan Tally Room

Who is standing

7 candidates announced · 1 photographed · 4 with a party logo instead

Carolyn Moore Animal Justice
Jeff Shelley Liberal
Joshua Mathews One Nation
Reema Ababneh Victorian Socialists
Sonya Kilkenny Labor Sitting member
Trevor Smith Libertarian
Zoe Pegrum The Greens

Announced candidacies as the ABC's candidate tracker records them. Nominations close 9 November 2026, so this list can change; it is not a ballot paper and the order carries no meaning. ABC VEC

Incumbent win chance

No probability is published for this seat — the model runs an incumbent win figure for the seven districts on its own list, and Carrum is not among them.

The Swing Is On

Evidence

No separate evidence line is recorded for this seat.

ABC Ace Strategies

Where it sits

Carrum is one of the 11 Legislative Assembly districts that make up the South-Eastern Metropolitan Region, which elects five members to the Legislative Council. The region covers 658 km².

2022 Council result

ALP 2 (Tarlamis, Galea), Lib 1 (Hermans), LCL 1 (Payne), LDP 1 (Limbrick)

VEC

The district

Carrum filled in, among all 88 districts. Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to pan, double-click to go in and back out. Boundaries: Vicmap State Assembly Polygon 2022, simplified for drawing. Vicmap

Held by, challenged by

Holding Labor Kilkenny, since the 2022 election.
Challenging Not named in the research

The Swing Is On ABC Roy Morgan Tally Room Wikipedia

Are you in this seat?

The percentage is how much of each postcode’s enrolment falls in this district.

3201 16,087 voters · 100% Carrum Downs
3977 9,524 voters · 12% Botanic Ridge, Cannons Creek, Cranbourne, Cranbourne East, Cranbourne North and 6 more
3197 9,358 voters · 100% Carrum, Patterson Lakes
3198 8,024 voters · 60% Seaford
3975 5,559 voters · 50% Lynbrook, Lyndhurst
3196 5,199 voters · 25% Bonbeach, Chelsea, Chelsea Heights, Edithvale
3175 514 voters · 2% Bangholme, Dandenong, Dandenong North, Dandenong South

VEC Vicmap

Elsewhere

The full pendulum The players

Where no player is listed, the research places none here — a gap in the record, not a seat with no activity.