Notes
Part of this site is a research project. These notes gather sources, summaries and work in progress, starting with the eleven issues the polling tracks.
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evidence Who funds the right
Two registers read as data rather than as reporting: the federal 2024-25 disclosures and every Victorian donation since 2020, for both parties of the right. One Nation itemises a fifth of what it receives and takes almost no corporate money; the Liberals take most of theirs through investment vehicles whose own donors the return never names. -
mechanism The Legislative Council
How Victoria’s upper house is elected, what group voting tickets did, and what the 2026 change to the ballot leaves in place. -
contest Polling
Victoria is a three-cornered contest that ends in a two-party result. The 28 published polls of 2026, the four averages, the six seat models, and the preference flow nobody has measured seat by seat. -
issue Cost of Living and Energy Prices
The $2.5bn package takes $84 off a $1,591 power bill for households on the default offer, and its discounts rise with what a household spends. The top fifth of households draw $207m from the car registration discount and the bottom fifth $100m. -
issue Crime and Community Safety
What the parties are promising on crime, what the recorded figures show, who is being policed and punished, and why the falling rate never answers the fear. -
issue Education and Teacher Pay
The deal gives teachers 28.3–32.4% over four years and a $2,000 bonus, taking an experienced salary from $118,063 to $151,419 by 2029. It ended the dispute, and the revolt inside the union outlasted it. The record carries nothing on what the year did to schools. -
issue Emergency Services Levy
A levy on land value since 1 July 2025, funding the CFA, VICSES and Fire Rescue Victoria, the farm bills behind the Bendigo rally, and an uncosted repeal. -
issue Health and Ambulance Response Times
A woman died after waiting about two hours for an ambulance in Hoppers Crossing, and a Bendigo child was treated by a crew from 80km away. The rosters behind both, what Labor and the Nationals have promised, and what the poll can’t tell you. -
issue Housing
Rent in Melbourne is $600 a week at the median, and 37.8% of the notices telling renters to leave are over unpaid rent. Housing still polls fifth at 8%. Labor’s scheme caps rent only inside its own five-year leases, and only the Greens would cap a private rent. -
issue ‘Mass Immigration’ and Racism
One Nation’s plan to cut migration below zero, the racist imagery its launch ran on, and what the research says actually answers it. -
issue Integrity and Anti Corruption
Geoffrey Watson SC’s report for Mark Irving KC, the CFMEU administrator, called the union’s Victorian branch a crime syndicate. It costed the branch’s conduct at up to $15bn, roughly 15% of the $100bn Big Build, and Irving removed the chapters behind that figure before publication. The royal commission that could test it reports after the election, and IBAC has warned every party about donations, lobbying and privileged access in the campaign. -
issue SEC and Electricity
Yallourn supplied 14.8% of Victoria’s electricity and closes in 2028. The line meant to carry its replacement is two years late and costed at up to $11.4bn, and the Coalition and One Nation would both cancel it. Labor would build it and expand the SEC. What a household pays is in Cost of Living and Energy Prices. -
issue Statewide Treaty
The treaty Victoria signed with First Peoples in November 2025, the repeal the Liberals and One Nation have both promised, and what the record says about stopping it. -
issue Transport and Infrastructure
Roads VAGO rates poor on nearly half the state-managed network, and a $3bn-a-year repair bill no party has adopted. The $33.3bn rail loop 49% would pause, and the transmission line the opposition would cancel. -
case Vote splitting in Canada
Canada’s 1993 election took the governing Progressive Conservatives from 169 seats to two, while the right’s vote moved mostly in Quebec and its seats moved everywhere. -
evidence Correcting false claims
The experiments on whether correcting a false claim changes what people believe, and what a correction needs before it works. -
evidence Attention to the far right
Studies on whether attention to immigration, or to the party, raises far-right support, and on which counter-messages have moved it. -
evidence Persuasion
The field experiments on whether campaign contact changes a vote, and where the effect has shown up. -
mechanism Preference flows
What a preference flow is, the counted estimates for Australian elections, and what the polling and seat models assume about moving one. -
case Withdrawals between rounds, France 2024
The 2024 French runoffs, the 224 candidates who withdrew, the transfer rates between rounds, and what the vote counts do and don’t show. -
evidence Turnout
The field experiments on what moves turnout, the tactics ranked against each other, and Victoria’s own turnout record. -
case Vox in Spain
Vox’s seat loss in the July 2023 Spanish general election, what the campaign against it was doing at the time, and the one effect of that campaign anyone has measured. - evidence
Evidence for campaign tactics
The designs that can carry a claim that a tactic worked, the kinds of account that can’t, and how the published record is tilted. -
evidence Voter defection
What the research says about how many voters move between parties, and what moves them.
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