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Terrain

Narre Warren South

Labor-held. Held by Labor on a two-candidate-preferred margin of 8.3.

ABCTally RoomWikipedia

What is happening herethe 2026 record for this seat

2026 note

Retiring

Member

Maas (Labor). The 2026 note above records a retiring member.

ABC

Who is coming for it

Coalition

The Swing Is OnABCRoy MorganTally Room

Who is standing

7 candidates announced · 5 with a party logo instead

  • Bailey McCracken Victorian Socialists
  • Jill Nambu The Greens
  • Lydia Denker Libertarian
  • Norliah Peterson Liberal
  • Scott Watson Independent
  • Stefan Koomen Labor
  • Trevor Hammond One Nation

Announced candidacies as the ABC's candidate tracker records them. Nominations close 9 November 2026, so this list can change; it is not a ballot paper and the order carries no meaning. ABCVEC

Incumbent win chance

No probability is published for this seat — the model gives a winning figure for seven districts this cycle, and Narre Warren South is not one of them. Its rank of 19 rests on the evidence beside it instead.

The Swing Is On

Evidence

Retiring (Maas); ABC says "should be a straightforward pickup"

ABCAce Strategies

Elsewhere

The full pendulum The players

Where no player is listed, the research places none here — a gap in the record, not a seat with no activity.