Bayswater
Labor-held. Held by Labor on a two-candidate-preferred margin of 4.2.
What is happening herethe 2026 record for this seat
2026 note
Retiring
Who is standing
- Alec Ferguson Victorian Socialists
- David Kitchen Liberal
- Gary Coombes Family First
- Jess Kennedy The Greens
- Julie Buxton Labor
- Kayte Bleakney One Nation
Announced candidacies as the ABC's candidate tracker records them. Nominations close 9 November 2026, so this list can change; it is not a ballot paper and the order carries no meaning. ABCVEC
Incumbent win chance
6.8% — the probability The Swing Is On’s simulation model gave the leading party in this seat, as at its 5 September 2026 aggregate. A low figure means the model expects the seat to change hands.
Evidence
Retiring MP; "almost impossible to see how Liberals form govt without it"
Elsewhere
Where no player is listed, the research places none here — a gap in the record, not a seat with no activity.