Eureka

Labor-held. Held by Labor on a two-candidate-preferred margin of 7.2.

ABC Tally Room Wikipedia

What is happening herethe 2026 record for this seat

2026 note

O-N target

Member

Settle (Labor). No retiring member is recorded for this seat.

ABC

Who is coming for it

One Nation

The Swing Is On ABC Roy Morgan Tally Room

Who is standing

7 candidates announced · 5 with a party logo instead

Andy Raven Victorian Socialists
Emma Muir Liberal
Ian Harkness Family First
Michaela Settle Labor Sitting member
Paul Ballinger One Nation
Sam McColl The Greens
Wendy Morrison Animal Justice

Announced candidacies as the ABC's candidate tracker records them. Nominations close 9 November 2026, so this list can change; it is not a ballot paper and the order carries no meaning. ABC VEC

Incumbent win chance

No probability is published for this seat — the model gives a winning figure for seven districts this cycle, and Eureka is not one of them. Its rank of 24 rests on the evidence beside it instead.

The Swing Is On

Evidence

ABC: "serious danger"; O-N running

ABC Ace Strategies

Where it sits

Eureka is one of the 11 Legislative Assembly districts that make up the Western Victoria Region, which elects five members to the Legislative Council. The region covers 77,776 km².

2022 Council result

ALP 2 (Ermacora, Tierney), Lib 2 (McArthur, McCracken), GRN 1 (Mansfield)

VEC

The district

Eureka filled in, among all 88 districts. Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to pan, double-click to go in and back out. Boundaries: Vicmap State Assembly Polygon 2022, simplified for drawing. Vicmap

Held by, challenged by

Holding Labor Settle, since the 2022 election.
Challenging One Nation A projected challenger, not a confirmed nomination.

The Swing Is On ABC Roy Morgan Tally Room Wikipedia

Are you in this seat?

The percentage is how much of each postcode’s enrolment falls in this district.

3350 19,573 voters · 39% Alfredton, Bakery Hill, Ballarat Central, Ballarat East, Ballarat North and 15 more
3340 17,563 voters · 91% Bacchus Marsh, Balliang, Balliang East, Coimadai, Darley and 8 more
3352 5,529 voters · 39% Addington, Blowhard, Bolwarrah, Bonshaw, Brewster and 51 more
3342 3,120 voters · 100% Ballan, Beremboke, Blakeville, Bunding, Colbrook and 4 more
3357 2,895 voters · 100% Buninyong
3328 1,915 voters · 100% Teesdale
3321 1,387 voters · 96% Hesse, Inverleigh, Wingeel
3345 1,087 voters · 100% Gordon
3332 1,010 voters · 100% Lethbridge
3341 951 voters · 75% Dales Creek, Greendale, Korobeit, Myrniong, Pentland Hills
3333 638 voters · 100% Bamganie, Meredith
3334 461 voters · 100% Bungal, Cargerie, Elaine, Morrisons, Mount Doran
3351 436 voters · 6% Berringa, Bo Peep, Cape Clear, Carngham, Chepstowe and 22 more
3331 343 voters · 6% Bannockburn, Gheringhap, Maude, Russells Bridge, She Oaks and 2 more
3329 207 voters · 100% Barunah Park, Barunah Plains, Shelford
3330 161 voters · 100% Rokewood
3213 60 voters · 2% Anakie, Batesford, Lovely Banks, Moorabool
3360 60 voters · 9% Happy Valley, Linton, Mannibadar, Pittong, Willowvale
3461 35 voters · 1% Bullarto, Bullarto South, Clydesdale, Coomoora, Denver and 23 more
3364 31 voters · 2% Allendale, Ascot, Bald Hills, Barkstead, Blampied and 18 more

VEC Vicmap

Elsewhere

The full pendulum The players

Where no player is listed, the research places none here — a gap in the record, not a seat with no activity.