Skip to content
Terrain

Evelyn

Coalition-held. Held by the Liberal Party on a two-candidate-preferred margin of 5.4.

ABCTally RoomWikipedia

What is happening herethe 2026 record for this seat

2026 note

O-N target

Member

Vallence (Liberal). No retiring member is recorded for this seat.

ABC

Who is coming for it

One Nation

The Swing Is OnABCRoy MorganTally Room

Who is standing

5 candidates announced · 4 with a party logo instead

  • Analise Sherlock Labor
  • Andrew Henley The Greens
  • Bridget Vallence Liberal Sitting member
  • Daniel Killey One Nation
  • Jan Heald Animal Justice

Announced candidacies as the ABC's candidate tracker records them. Nominations close 9 November 2026, so this list can change; it is not a ballot paper and the order carries no meaning. ABCVEC

Incumbent win chance

No probability is published for this seat — the model gives a winning figure for seven districts this cycle, and Evelyn is not one of them. Its rank of 31 rests on the evidence beside it instead.

The Swing Is On

Evidence

Demographics suit O-N; Vallence 46% primary

ABCAce Strategies

Elsewhere

The full pendulum The players

Where no player is listed, the research places none here — a gap in the record, not a seat with no activity.