Pakenham
Labor-held. Held by Labor on a two-candidate-preferred margin of 0.4 — decided by less than a point.
What is happening herethe 2026 record for this seat
2026 note
Retiring; O-N leader running
Who is standing
- Alessandra Soliven Labor
- Kate Hands Libertarian
- Nasser Yawari The Greens
- Radmila Dyson Liberal
- Raymond French Independent
- Stephanie Grigg Victorian Socialists
-
Warren Pickering One Nation
Announced candidacies as the ABC's candidate tracker records them. Nominations close 9 November 2026, so this list can change; it is not a ballot paper and the order carries no meaning. ABCVEC
Incumbent win chance
7.4% — the probability The Swing Is On’s simulation model gave the leading party in this seat, as at its 5 September 2026 aggregate. A low figure means the model expects the seat to change hands.
Elsewhere
Where no player is listed, the research places none here — a gap in the record, not a seat with no activity.