The seats to watch in Victoria this November
The Swing Is On
To lose the majority Labor must lose 12 seats. Its 12th-weakest seat is Macedon (30.9% chance of retaining).
record src_swingison_20260905
Quoted from this source 3 passages
“Of 56 Labor seats won in 2022, the party is the most-common winning party in just 35 simulations. In the 21 where it trails: Coalition leads in 15, One Nation in five, Greens in just one.”
“Outer-metropolitan: Melton (83.5% chance), Bendigo East (63.7%), Cranbourne (56.1%), Sydenham (55.5%), Mill Park (53.9%) — all currently Labor seats.”
“The model gives One Nation between 1 and 27 seats in 90% of all simulations.”
Relied on by 3 pages
Every source Terrain holds is listed in the index. Records are held independently of this site, so a link to one keeps working if the page is rebuilt.