Statistics on Preference Flows between the Coalition and One Nation
Antony Green's Election Blog
2020 Queensland election (verbatim): "In 70 Labor/LNP contests, Green preferences flowed 80.1% to Labor, 19.9% to the LNP. In 69 Labor/LNP contests, One Nation preferences flowed 33.8% to Labor and 66.2% to the LNP." LNP preferences counted out in 12 electorates, eight of them Labor–ONP contests, flowed "in total 76.1%
record src_mod_ag_on_preference_flows
Quoted from this source 5 passages
“While it is clear that support for Labor and the Greens coalesces with an easily assumed preference flow above 85% between the parties, the evidence of the 2025 Federal and recent Queensland elections shows the similar figure between the Coalition and One Nation is around 75%.”
“In 2019 One Nation normally put the Coalition ahead of Labor, though not necessarily at 2, and preference flowed around 65% to the Coalition. In 2025 One Nation put the Coalition as 2nd preferences in many more seats and preference flows increased to 74.5%.”
“Which raises a conundrum for the Coalition that preference flows from One Nation have tended to be lower in the seats that the Coalition needs to gain from Labor, and higher in its own seats which it must defend against One Nation.”
“Given Labor and the Greens achieve preference flows of around 85%, their support merges to around 42%. With only 75% flows between parties of the right, the merged right total is only around 38%.”
“The chart shows some variability in flow, but the trend line is virtually flat pointing to 75% being the default flow of One Nation preferences to the Coalition.”
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