A meta-analysis of voter mobilization tactics by electoral salience (Mann & Haenschen, 2024)

Quoted from this source 8 passages

• “Results show that effects of tactics attenuate 33%–76% from low- to high-salience contexts. We translate all findings into intent-to-treat (ITT) estimates to highlight the impact of declining contact rates.”

• “Phone contact rates for professional phone centers have fallen from 36% in 1997 to just 6% in 2018 … Political professionals with experience running volunteer phone banks expect contact rates around 10–12%.”

• “After hundreds of field experiments assessing their effectiveness, voter mobilization tactics are often considered 'settled science.' In this research note, we posit that this assumption is incorrect”

• “For the ITT effect of canvassing to match the ITT effect of social pressure mail, the contact rate would have to exceed 45% in high-salience contexts and 53% in low-salience contexts.”

• “In a high-salience election, scholars or practitioners relying on the commingled estimates would find themselves 19–40% short of the votes they were mistakenly expecting.”

• “We translate all findings into intent-to-treat (ITT) estimates to highlight the impact of declining contact rates.”

• “we present a re-analysis of 240 field experiments presented in Green and Gerber (2019)”

• “Contact rates for canvassing conventionally fall around 25–30% depending on population”

Relied on by 2 pages

• note Turnout
• note Evidence for campaign tactics