The Minimal Persuasive Effects of Campaign Contact in General Elections: Evidence from 49 Field Experiments (Kalla & Broockman, 2018)

Quoted from this source 6 passages

• “Together these studies suggest that the most optimistic estimate that could be warranted from the literature is that campaign contact persuades about 1 in 175 voters, but that our best guess is that it persuades about 1 in 800 voters, substantively zero.”

• “These results are not an artifact of survey measurement: in precinct randomized experiments that do not rely on self-reported survey data, we find an average treatment effect of −0.02 percentage points.”

• “Our outreach to authors of previous experiments and listservs yielded at least five additional experiments with null effects that have not been written up”

• “We argue that the best estimate of the effects of campaign contact and advertising on Americans' candidates choices in general elections is zero.”

• “the average effect … of 3.16 percentage points with a 95% confidence interval from 1.34 to 4.99 percentage points”

• “We see clear significant effects in both these election types.”

Relied on by 2 pages

• note Persuasion
• note Evidence for campaign tactics