Candidates

Born 12 Jul 1975, Melbourne (Airport West); lawyer (La Trobe LLB/LLM); state MP for Niddrie since a March 2012 by-election (succeeded Rob Hulls); Labor Right faction, SDA-linked, protégé of Stephen Conroy ("the Cons"); adviser to Steve Bracks 2000–04. Ministerial career: Parliamentary Secretary for Justice (2014), cabinet 2017 (Industry/Employment), Public Transport/Roads, Victim Support/Corrections, then Deputy Premier 2023 and Education Minister; managed the AEU dispute (28.2% 4-year offer; members rejected 51.18% in Jul 2026; two statewide strikes) Wikipedia . Premier since 28 Jul 2026 after Allan pulled out of a leadership ballot; faced a surprise challenge from Sonya Kilkenny (15 votes) but won >2/3 of caucus Wikipedia . More economically liberal/pro-business than Allan/Andrews; cites Bill Clinton Wikipedia . Early actions: royal commission into construction (CFMEU); cabinet review of SRL; new worker-protection laws ABC . Campaign pledges: $2b SRL savings + axe secret SRL levy ABCGuardian ; land-tax threshold restoration Labor ; free abortion care ABC . Vulnerability: Niddrie is ALP 6.7% — the Liberals' most direct path to majority; if he loses, first sitting major-party leader to lose a seat since 1945 (Macfarlan) ABC . Net likeability −11 (Oct 2026) Poll Bludger .

Born 25 Apr 1990; Liberal moderate; MP for Kew since 2022 (succeeded Tim Smith); daughter of former MP Ron Wilson; ex-Executive Director of Policy at the Business Council of Australia and adviser to Josh Frydenberg; ex-Victorian Young Liberals president. Leader of the Opposition / Victorian Liberal leader since 18 Nov 2025 (spill carried 19–13; elected unopposed); first woman to lead the Liberal Party of Victoria. Third in the Dec 2024 spill that elected Battin. Retained the Treasury portfolio as leader (breaking precedent) Wikipedia . Policy record: coercive-control bill (Nov 2025, matched by Labor); April 2026 bail/sentencing reform; May 2026 10-year economic plan; weekly red-bin collection; $1.27bn health plan ABCAFRThe Saturday Paper . Strengths: leads preferred premier (29% to Carroll 22%), net likeability +23; the "change but not chaos" alternative to ON (Samaras). Vulnerabilities: Kew margin only 4.0% with a renewed teal challenge from Sophie Torney; One Nation eating Liberal primary across the state; only publicly backed the Voice in 2023 among Liberals Wikipedia .

Born 2 Apr 1974, Traralgon; former journalist; chief of staff to Peter Ryan, adviser to Mark Vaile, chief of staff to Barnaby Joyce; appointed to Eastern Victoria MLC 2014; MP for Gippsland South since a March 2015 by-election (succeeded Peter Ryan); Nationals leader since 25 Nov 2024 (unopposed after Peter Walsh stood down) Wikipedia . Leads party to its best lower-house position since 1943. Campaign: "no safe seats"; Nationals candidate selection of "local champions"; targets Bendigo East/West and Ripon GuardianABC . Gippsland South (NAT 15.6%) is itself a key seat due to One Nation ABC .

Born 26 Nov 1984, Alice Springs; scientist (BSc genetics/BA), ex-director of the Australian Youth Climate Coalition (2011–12); MP for Melbourne since 2014; Greens deputy leader 2018–2024, leader since Apr 2024; three children Wikipedia . 2026 platform: $300m/10 state-owned supermarkets, $1bn community safety, $18bn Fair Share plan, permanent free transport, rent caps ABCGuardian . Claims party "on track to win more seats than any state Greens party has ever won," targeting six Labor seats Guardian . Greens at 15–16% primary; Greens preferences flow 82–93% to Labor ABC .

Age ~43; born Gippsland (potato-farm childhood); bricklayer, 7 years Army combat engineer, coal-industry worker (left over COVID rules); former One Nation Senate candidate; One Nation Victorian president and state leader since 3 Aug 2026; candidate for Pakenham (ALP 0.4%; Emma Vulin retiring) One NationWikipedia . Originally slated as Eastern Victoria upper-house lead; withdrew to contest Pakenham Election Tracker . Crime-focused campaign (ADF-veteran police recruits) ABC . Vulnerabilities: Sept 2026 admission of past drug use and three drink-driving licence losses ("no angel"), denied ice use in front of children; considering defamation action against The Australian; barring ABC/Guardian from his press conference Guardian ; promoted "15-minute city" conspiracy theory ABC ; ON wants abortion cut to 12 weeks (his 2022 position) ABC . Preferred premier 14% (Resolve, up 6) ABC .

Born 27 May 1954, Woolloongabba Qld; former Ipswich councillor; Liberal MP for Oxley 1996–98 (disendorsed, sat as independent); co-founded One Nation 1997; jailed for electoral fraud 2003 (convictions overturned on appeal); Queensland senator since 2016 (re-elected 2022); One Nation leader since 2014 Wikipedia . Launched Victoria's campaign 3 Oct 2026 at Crown Casino; invoked Ned Kelly and the Eureka Stockade; "What I've provided is a vehicle; now you are the engine" ABC . Repeated burqa stunts (2017, Nov 2025 — censured, suspended 7 sitting days). First National Press Club address since 1996 on 17 Jun 2026 amid the party's surge. Registered officer of One Nation Victoria VEC .

Born 19 Sept 1973, Bendigo; MP for Bendigo East since 1999 (won aged 25, youngest female Victorian MP; 8.1% swing); minister from 2002; Deputy Premier 2022; 49th Premier 27 Sept 2023 – 28 Jul 2026; second female premier Wikipedia . Premiership: SRL/Metro Tunnel/West Gate Tunnel; statewide Treaty (first in Australia, legislated Nov 2025); housing/planning reform; machete bans; work-from-home laws; but defined by the CFMEU Big Build corruption scandal (Watson report: ~$15bn cost) and falling ratings Wikipedia . Resigned as premier 28 Jul 2026 as Carroll mounted a challenge; announced retirement from politics 14 Aug 2026 ABC . Bendigo East (ALP 10.9%) is a three-way seat now contested by Labor's Tim Rickwood, Nationals' Andrew Lethlean and ON's Cheryl Hawken One NationABC .

Per ABC retiring-MPs guide and tracker (25 confirmed non-recontestings) ABCElection Tracker :

• Labor (11): Jacinta Allan (Bendigo East), Jordan Crugnale (Bass), Lily D'Ambrosio (Mill Park), Maree Edwards (Bendigo West, Speaker), Natalie Hutchins (Sydenham), Gary Maas (Narre Warren South), Steve McGhie (Melton), Danny Pearson (Essendon), Jackson Taylor (Bayswater), Mary-Anne Thomas (Macedon), Emma Vulin (Pakenham); plus Council: Harriet Shing (Eastern Vic), Shaun Leane (NE Metro), Gayle Tierney (Western Vic).

• Coalition (7): Tim Bull (Nat, Gippsland East), David Hodgett (Lib, Croydon), Michael O'Brien (Lib, Malvern, former leader), Kim O'Keeffe (Nat, Shepparton), Bill Tilley (Lib, Benambra), Peter Walsh (Nat, Murray Plains, former leader), Kim Wells (Lib, Rowville); plus Council: Wendy Lovell (Lib, Northern Vic), Joe McCracken (Lib, Western Vic).

• Others: Will Fowles (Independent, Ringwood, ex-Labor), Tim Read (Greens, Brunswick — died 19 Sept 2026), David Ettershank (Legalise Cannabis, Western Metro). Significance: several retirements fall in ultra-marginal seats (Pakenham 0.4%, Bass 0.2%, Melton 4.6%, Bayswater 4.2%) leaving Labor without incumbents ABC .

Kos Samaras — Director, Strategy and Analytics, RedBridge Group; former Victorian Labor assistant secretary with 25+ years in the party; RedBridge (with Accent Research) polls for the AFR and Victorian Trades Hall RedBridgeAFR . Frames the three-way contest; says the Coalition must win back Melbourne's east to govern ABC ; describes the Victorian Nationals brand as the "strongest in the country" and "well-poised" against One Nation Guardian ; told Politico the contest is "up for grabs" everywhere outside migrant-heavy Melbourne corridors POLITICO . RedBridge's two most recent Victorian polls put the Coalition 56–44 over Labor (more bullish than Resolve's ~52–48) ABC .